Verdict is out

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Daanish Bin Nabi

The stage is set for the by-elections of Anantnag constituency, scheduled for April 12, where the contest is between the debutant and former Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s son, Tasaduq Muft,i and a seasoned politician, Ghulam Muhammad Mir, of Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee President (JKPCC). But before the poll bugle could be sounded in the eruptive South Kashmir, Kashmir stands on edge following the violence during Sunday’s polling. The fresh wave of violence in which at least eight people got killed on the poll day at the hands of government forces has put a conspicuous question mark not only on the outcome of April 12 but the overall changing political atmosphere in the state. The turnout on Sunday could not even cross the single digit with the recorded percentage at a little over 7 percent. If the vote is taken as the voice of the people, then people have clearly spoken, no matter how the pro-mainstream parties interpret it or how the media spins the stories. Low percentage and violence have further cast doubts on the Anantnag constituency elections and their results. These developments have not come as a surprise in Kashmir as till winter of 2016, there was no visible change in the charged atmosphere in Kashmir. 
South Kashmir is different
 In 2016, the protests in South Kashmir were unrelenting, and so was the violence. Those killed during protests were mostly from areas like Kulgam, Kaimoh, Bijbehara and Shopian. These also happen to be areas where PDP in the past emerged as a strong party and compete with the then invincible National Conference. Given the recent record of violence in South Kashmir, it is going to be tough for elections to be conducted smoothly here. So the first round of challenge is not for the parties, but the election commission. People’s Democratic Party is on a sticky wicket for three reasons. One that they have fielded a debutant who has to face a political stalwart. Two, it is not just JKPCC pitched against PDP as the former has support of other parties, mostly the opposition. Three, the 2016 unrest has changed the equation in South Kashmir. In Srinagar constituency election, people did stay away from polls and clearly said that they could not put aside all that happened in 2016. The turnout therefore may not be as high as expected by the parties. Taking the 7.14 percent voting of Sunday into account, votes cast in Anantnag would mostly be of party members and cadre. This would decide the results. Overall the sheen of democracy is already taken out as single digit voting means nothing.              
Interestingly, in Srinagar, National Conference was more free to campaign, although in a much limited way. The party has been confident, particularly after having an understanding with the Congress party.
Voting in Srinagar
If 7.14 percent means a verdict, it is clearly out. None of the mainstream parties will win as more than 92 percent did not participate. None of the mainstream political parties could break the ice and the disillusionment is more than visible now. What seems to be at the losing end is PDP that stitched an infamous alliance with the party that has landed it in trouble in its own bastion. If the same is repeated in South Kashmir, which is more volatile than Srinagar, it is going to be defeat of the democracy.
About Percentages   
The Srinagar constituency voting and now the Anantnag voting are litmus test of the parties that have made claims about percentages in the past. There has been a debate between different parties who claimed during 2016 unrest that a small percentage was behind the protests and violence. The Sunday’s results revealed an altogether different picture as only 7 percent came out in their support.   
Carnage in Kashmir
The violence unleashed on Sunday is unprecedented for an election day. The tempers are once again high, the youth are out on streets again. From Indian side, there has been no slack or change of policy but only hollow promises and assurances. After hue and cry over the rampant use of pellet guns and indiscriminate fire, a matter taken by Supreme Court of India and several human rights groups, there was no change in the policy. On his visit to Kashmir in 2016, Home Minister Rajnath Singh said the alternative to pellet guns would be in place in few weeks time. Then the government also assured of possibly starting a dialogue process by sending delegations to Kashmir. On that too it has largely misled the people. But the biggest factor has been the complete disregard for human rights in 2016 and now in 2017. Government forces have resorted to extreme measure of firing on protestors and they cannot do it on their own and without being directed.
Deferring the polls       
Late Monday, the news has come that polls in South Kashmir has been deferred. But is it in any way a solution to the problem. Absolutely not. By deferring polls the parties have only bought some time. It is hard to say whether these parties could do till poll day what they couldn’t since July 8, 2016. But what lies in store for them is known now. Whether any course correction could be made now, it all depends on what kind of support the local parties get from the non-state parties.    
Published at April 11, 2017 by Rising Kashmir

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