THE BATTLE FOR PARLIAMENT
The gory civilian killings that occurred on April 09, 2017 in Budgam district will be remembered as one of the ill-fated days of the jinxed Kashmir dispute. The security situation in Kashmir is turning from bad to worse with each passing day and the most demoralising part of these killings is that New Delhi has turned a blind eye towards the killings in Kashmir.
Srinagar Parliamentary constituency that went to polls on April 09 – that had over 12 lakh voters – saw a minimal turnout of voters and the violence on that day is self-explanatory about how New Delhi is losing ground on Kashmir political turf.
Many political pundits now compare the seven percent polling, a record lowest in past three decades, with five percent theory of Chief Minister Mehbooba suggesting the rage among the people against the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The highest voter turnout for Srinagar constituency was witnessed in Kangan belt of ganderbal district which had become the bastion of Tariq Hamid Karra vote bank during the 2014 parliamentary elections. As Karra turned sides and aligned with Dr. Farooq Abdullah – National Conference’s candidate for Srinagar seat – it indicates that all these votes would go to Dr. Farooq’s belt. Riding high on secular plank, Dr. Farooq Abdullah’s win seems to be foregone conclusion for Srinagar parliamentary seat.
Also, it is tough to defeat Dr. Farooq in his own backyard for the second consecutive term. Given all the political mathematical diametric, the Srinagar parliamentary seat seems to be an easy cake walk for the veteran Dr. Farooq Abdullah.
As far as the Anantnag constituency is concerned the deferment of by-polls has come as a relief for the people in general and for the youth in particular because taking the violence of Srinagar constituency into consideration, the violence in south Kashmir could have triggered much more deaths and stone pelting incidents than Srinagar constituency.
The south Kashmir districts that fall under Anantnag constituency include districts of Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag. All four districts have been on boil since the 2016 summer unrest. Most of the youth killed, injured or blinded by the government forces in 2016 unrest belong to these districts. Insurgency hotbeds like Tral, Kulgam and Pulwama also fall in the same constituency.
South Kashmir which is the vote base for ruling PDP, could have easily turned against them as the rage against PDP among people is strong. Also, for PDP to contest under present situation in south Kashmir was an uphill task because of two factors. First, PDP’s coalition with the BJP is seen as the “eternal betrayal” with the people on Kashmir in general and with the people of south Kashmir in particular. Second, the unrest of 2016 has also not helped the ruling party PDP either.
The insurgent attacks on that particular day would also have played an important role which could have an adverse effect on the Jammu and Kashmir Congress President Ghulam Ahmad Mir led coalition in Anantnag because the same logic will play out here again – the smaller the number of voter turnout, the easy it would have been for ruling dispensation to manipulate the election result.
Tailpiece
The overall situation in Kashmir remains very grim and the anger among the people against the New Delhi can explode at any given time even a small spark can play a spoil support. The Srinagar Parliamentary election that shows less than seven percent voter turnout – even after re-polls – amply shows how much the ground reality has changed for New Delhi in Kashmir. On its part, New Delhi has to act and act now in form of initiating a dialogue with all the stake holders to bring some semblance to the decade old “peace process” between Pakistan, Kashmir and India.
